TWC Session 10 (Week 11)

Figure 1. Snapshot of Civilization V, a type of government simulation game
Reproduced from 2KGAMES International. (n.d.)

Brief Overview/Summary

Last formal lesson of TWC, we are covering on the topic Technology Forecasting & Assessment. Prof mentioned that openness- being open to perspective is always a double edged sword, the good thing is that you are a rising star while being open, but the bad thing is that other people might also copy your idea. 

The difference between Assessment of Technology and Forecasting of Technology is that, assessment of technology is a term used to described assessing of current situation and current technologies on what can be improved, while technology forecasting is saying where are all these improved technologies going to take us and how do they change the world.

So why do we need to assess and forecast? So these are Some of major drivers for Technology Assessment & Forecasting discussed,
1. Exponential growth in the range of new technologies with potential world changing significance
2. The need to gain an understanding of what kinds of changes a new technology innovation might bring - in economic, social, ethical/legal, environment and other terms
3. The need to prioritize in deciding whether and when to invest in research and development of new innovations and technologies
4. The need to prioritize, given limited resources, on whether and when to implement and use new innovations and technologies - especially important in developing countries.

Then we covered on some methods of foresight studies.They are but not exhaustive,
Backcasting, which means starting from the future then work backwards. The Delphi Approach and Simulation.

After that, we went through the individual oral presentation and I was the last person in the last lesson to present.

Interesting Observations and Ideas

Three ideas that really caught my attention, they are,

• Benjamin Franklin quoted, "Look before, or you'll find yourself behind". So, if you do not want to move forward, do not want to think ahead but still thinking of the past, you will be left behind.

• Surprising that simulation and gaming is rarely used for foresight studies. Because simulation or virtual reality can ideally replicate different scenarios and possibilities and from there we can evaluate what are the best for us.

• Delphi method of forecasting, after research the delphi method is a systematic and interactive forecasting method which relies on a panel of identified experts in their leading areas. For example, a few countries are identified because they are leading players in renewable energy. Then, the experts will answer questions for a few rounds. After each round, the facilitator will provide them a summary of their forecasts from previous rounds with their supporting reasons, therefore this encourages the experts to revise their earlier answers with the replies of other experts in the panel. It is believe that the range of the answers will decrease in this process and the group will reach a conclusion ("a correct answer"). The process is stopped after a pre-defined stop gauge (e.g. stopping at a certain number of rounds, achievement of consensus or stability of results), finally the mean or median scores of the final rounds determine the results. (Wikipedia, n.d.)

Key Take Away Points

Technology assessment and forecasting is important, we should always be forward
thinking(be like a rising star) to continue living and adapt to the future and we
should ask why not instead of why. For example, a hand is not just a hand, but what if I
move my hands up and down, and it can scroll the screen on the computer, switch
channels on television etc.

Issues for Further Discussion

Personal Ratings for Session

I rate this session 10/10, because this session provides an insight into how technology is forecasted and what are the drivers that emphasizes the importance of technology assessment & forecasting.